Thursday, August 12, 2004

What are the chances of that...?

It's long been noted that many people don't understand chance. Indeed, I've recently been arguing with someone around here who seems to want to conflate coincidence with the supernatural. This is just silly. However, on another level, this ignorance can become disturbing. From reading the papers, yesterday (or rather perusing headlines in the shop - I go for diligent research) it appears that a multiple rapist has won 7million on the lottery. This is, apparently, a "Bad Thing" as he's not worthy. Well, when has the lottery ever been about worthy people winning anything? You buy your ticket, you have a 30,000,000-to-1 chance of picking up the jackpot (I think - that sort of order of magnitude, anyway). What has morality or goodness got to do with anything? If you're going to accept the principle of a lottery, you surely have to accept that the person who wins it is going to be random, and then can't complain that it isn't some sort of saint (or, in the case of the Daily Mail, a white, small-businessman with 2.4 kids, from the Home Counties, as I don't think anyone else would classify as morally worthy in their eyes...)
And anyway, this rapist is going to be in prison for a very long time. What, exactly, is 7million going to do for him, without his liberty? A lot of cigarettes and phone-cards....

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